Maria Semenova participated at the research seminar at Nazarbayev University (Astana)

Maria Semenova (LaBS Head) presented the paper "The Paradox of Participation: Political Connections and Bank Mortgage Lending Under Government Support Programs in Russia" (co-authored with Nikita Kozlov, LaBS HSE) at the research seminar at Nazarbayev University (Astana) on April, 3, 2026.

Abstract
This paper examines how political connections shape Russian banks’ strategic choices regarding participation in government mortgage-support programs. Using a unique dataset that integrates manually collected information on the political connections of 115 banks over 2015-2021 with records on program enrollment and volumes of state-supported mortgage lending, we examine how distinct types of political ties shape both decisions to enroll and subsequent lending outcomes. The results indicate that certain connections—particularly prior employment in state-owned enterprises and informal contacts within government institutions—are associated with a higher likelihood of formal participation but correspond to moderate lending volumes. Our findings confirm that political ties function as instruments through which banks manage uncertainty, coordinate with public authorities, and position themselves within the broader state-bank interface.

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